By Andrew First
Open this report in a PDF.
2008 Presidential Election Analysis, November 4, 2008
Introduction: On December 6, 2008, 538 electors will cast their votes for President and Vice President of the United States. A candidate must receive 270 votes to win. These electors will be chosen on November 4, with a popular vote within each state, with a winner take all system in 48 states, and the District of Columbia. Maine and Nebraska award 2 electoral votes to the winner of the state at large, as well as one vote for the winner of each congressional district. Although in about half of the states, electors are bound by law to vote for their chosen candidate, electors in other states face no such constraints. Occasionally an electoral vote is cast for someone other than the candidate, however, this is very rare, and is always done to make a statement. No elector would take such a risk in a very close electoral contest.
States and DC that were blue in 2004 = 252 electoral votes
Obama has leads in the opinion polls well outside the margin of error, and in most cases a double digit lead.