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2004 Exit Polls

Mark Crispin Miller Live Online Tonight Taking Your Questions

Submitted by davidswanson on March 26, 2008 - 8:08am.

Tonight from 8 - 9 p.m. ET I'll be interviewing Mark Crispin Miller and he'll be taking your questions at http://www.thepeoplespeakradio.net

Mark Crispin Miller is professor of media studies at New York University and the author of the book: Fooled Again, How the Right Stole the 2004 Elections. He is known for his writing on American media and for his activism on behalf of democratic media reform. His books include Boxed In: The Culture of TV, Seeing Through Movies, and Mad Scientists, a study of war propaganda.

Miller writes in his book, Fooled Again, that the 2000 U.S. Presidential election and 2004 U.S. Presidential election were “stolen”. Miller presents extensive documentation, backed by 56 pages of notes, supporting his contention that the outcome of both elections was altered and controlled by a small minority. He states that the American voting populace can no longer assume that their votes will be accurately assessed, and that the installation of electronic voting machines in state after state is a fundamental flaw in the U.S. electoral system. He appeared in the 2004 documentary Orwell Rolls in His Grave, which focuses on the hidden mechanics of the media, its role as it should be and what it actually is, and how it shapes (to the point of almost controlling) U.S. politics.

Mark’s new book is: Loser Take All: Election Fraud and the Subversion of Democracy, 2000-2008.

Did Kerry actually win over 360 Electoral Votes?

Submitted by Gore4US on August 5, 2007 - 7:56pm.

Did Kerry actually win more than 360 Electoral votes?
This analysis shows why he very well may have.

The 2004 Election Simulation Model

Submitted by Gore4US on July 12, 2007 - 3:42pm.

 

The following contains a link to the 2004 Election Simulation Model: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2004ElectionSimulationModel.htm

The model is  based on four sets of polls:

1988-2004: The Submerging Democratic Majority

Submitted by Gore4US on July 9, 2007 - 10:24pm.

1988-2004 Election Analysis: The Submerging Democratic Majority http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#HistoricalElections 

The Democrats actually won all FIVE elections by an average 8.9 MILLION vote margin. That’s the True Emerging Democratic Majority. Don't believe it? Run the numbers yourself.

1988-2004 Election Calculator

Submitted by Gore4US on June 14, 2007 - 12:10am.

The Election Calculator created by TruthIsAll, is a small, yet powerful Excel model. The workbook contains worksheets for analyzing all presidential elections since 1988.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCalculator.htm 

The model uses historic recorded vote data in conjunction with user input assumptions. Select the "2004" tab at the bottom of the screen to calculate the Kerry/Bush vote. Enter your assumptions for uncounted vote rates, mortality rates and Kerry/Bush share of returning 2000 voters. The uncounted vote rate is the percentage difference between total votes cast and the recorded vote.

It's Statistically Impossible That Bush Beat Kerry

Submitted by davidswanson on May 10, 2007 - 3:18pm.

The Use of Statistics in Elections
By Andrew First

On the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November, every four years, Americans elect a new president. More often than not, the outcome of the election is unknown beforehand. Polls are taken in the weeks and months prior to an election, but those are merely a snapshot in time, reflecting the electorate’s opinion at that particular moment. The candidate that an undecided voter supports can change many times before the election, and some people are completely undecided until they step into the voting booth. In addition, slim margins can not be predicted beforehand due to sampling variability. While samples give a good idea of what voters are thinking, there is a margin of error in each poll that must be taken into account while analyzing the poll results.

Scientific Analysis Suggests Presidential Vote Counts May Have Been Altered

Submitted by Ted Kahl on April 1, 2005 - 9:10pm.

Group of University Professors Urges Investigation of 2004 Election

From US Count Votes:

WASHINGTON -- March 31 -- Officially, President Bush won November's election by 2.5%, yet exit polls showed Kerry winning by 3%[1]. According to a report to be released today by a group of university statisticians, the odds of a discrepancy this large between the national exit poll and election results happening by accident are close to 1 in a million.

In other words, by random chance alone, it could not have happened. But it did.

Two alternatives remain. Either something was wrong with the exit polling, or something was wrong with the vote count.

Exit Pollsters LIE About Kerry's Victory

Submitted by Bob Fertik on January 19, 2005 - 11:50pm.

Since Election Night, I've been angry over the refusal of the NEP and the networks to explain the Exit Polls that proved Kerry won Ohio, Florida, and the Presidency.

After all, the Ukrainian election was overturned because exit polls showed Yuschenko won, even though the government-controlled tabulations showed he lost.

Well, we finally got an "explanation" - and it's utterly bogus. Here's the CNN version:

Report suggests changes in exit poll methodology
Wednesday, January 19, 2005 Posted: 12:17 PM EST

Exit polls overstated John Kerry's share of the vote on November 2, both nationally and in many states, because more Kerry supporters participated in the survey than Bush voters, according to an internal review of the exit-polling process released Wednesday.

This is a complicated sentence, so let's make it simpler.

Fl Statistician Debunks the Berkeley Study Debunkers

Submitted by CactusPat on December 10, 2004 - 6:30am.

Kim Zetter over at Wired.com published a report on a new analysis supposedly debuking UC Berkeley's Quantitative Methods Research Team statistical study, which calls for investigation of the Florida results. "...But Bruce McCullough, a decisions science professor at Drexel University and Binghamton University economics professor Florenz Plassmann released an analysis of the Berkeley report criticizing the results. According to the Berkeley study, the number of votes granted to Bush in touch-screen counties far exceeded expectation, given a number of variables - including the number of votes those counties gave Bush in 2000 - while counties using other types of voting equipment gave Bush a predictable number of votes." A reply to this supposed debunking comes from a statistician in Tallahassee, who has done his own analysis' of the Florida and Ohio results. He has also confirmed the work Richard Hayes Phillips has done in Ohio -