1988-2004 Election Analysis: The Submerging Democratic Majority http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#HistoricalElections
The Democrats actually won all FIVE elections by an average 8.9 MILLION vote margin. That’s the True Emerging Democratic Majority. Don't believe it? Run the numbers yourself.
This analysis is based on the 1988-2004 Election Calculator model. The model first estimates the number of returning voters by adjusting prior election recorded vote totals for uncounted votes and mortality. An estimated turnout percentage is applied to this value. As preliminary NEP vote shares were not available for 1988-2000, Final National Exit Poll shares (which were matched to the recorded vote) were assumed for the base case. In 2004, however, preliminary 12:22am "pristine" vote shares were available, so these were used instead.
The model used Census-reported total votes cast as the base case assumption. The pool of potential returning voters was assumed to include all who cast votes, rather than just those whose votes were recorded. Uncounted vote rates based on the Census are much higher than the assumed 3.0% rate in prior models. Another assumption change is the mortality rate. Annual voter mortality, estimated as 1.22-1.30%, is more accurate than prior models which assumed the total US 0.87% mortality rate.
The new base case assumptions had the effect of increasing Democratic vote shares compared to prior models. For example, the Election Calculator indicates that Kerry won by 53.0- 45.9%, a 9 million vote margin. The prior True Vote Model had Kerry winning by 52.6-46.4%.
Following are the key results based on AVERAGE CALCULATED 1988-2004 Vote shares:
- The Dem share was 3.8% HIGHER than the RECORDED share.
- The GOP share was 3.2% LOWER than the RECORDED share.
- The Dem share was 1.4% HIGHER than the PRELIMINARY Exit Poll.
- The GOP share was 0.1% HIGHER than the PRELIMINARY Exit Poll.
Voter turnout of prior election Dem, GOP and Other voters is calculated as:
Turnout = prior election (recorded vote + uncounted votes - voter deaths)* voter turnout percentage
The True vote for the Dem, GOP and Other candidate is calculated as:
True Vote = shares of returning (Dem + GOP + Other + New voters)
| Summary Statistics (1988-2004) |
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Calculated |
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TRUE Vote |
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Exit Poll |
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Recorded |
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Calculated Dem |
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Dem |
Rep |
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Dem |
Rep |
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Dem |
Rep |
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Margin (mil) |
| Average |
50.9% |
43.0% |
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49.5% |
42.9% |
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47.1% |
46.2% |
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8.86 |
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| 2004 |
53.0% |
45.9% |
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50.8% |
48.2% |
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48.3% |
50.7% |
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8.96 |
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| 2000 |
51.1% |
46.0% |
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48.5% |
46.2% |
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48.4% |
47.9% |
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5.66 |
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| 1996 |
52.0% |
39.3% |
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52.2% |
37.5% |
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49.9% |
41.4% |
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13.36 |
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| 1992 |
47.9% |
35.0% |
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46.0% |
33.1% |
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43.3% |
37.7% |
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14.71 |
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| 1988 |
50.2% |
48.7% |
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49.8% |
49.3% |
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45.6% |
53.4% |
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1.61 |
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| 1988-2004 Avg |
Total |
Dem |
Rep |
Other |
Margin |
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Dem |
Rep |
Other |
Margin |
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| Calculated |
111.5 |
56.76 |
47.90 |
6.86 |
8.86 |
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50.9% |
43.0% |
6.2% |
7.9% |
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| Recorded |
102.9 |
48.47 |
47.66 |
6.74 |
0.81 |
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47.1% |
46.2% |
6.7% |
0.9% |
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| Prelim Exit poll |
102.9 |
50.84 |
44.28 |
7.93 |
6.56 |
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49.5% |
42.9% |
7.9% |
6.6% |
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| Discrepancies |
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| Calc - Recorded |
8.7 |
8.29 |
0.24 |
0.12 |
8.05 |
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3.8% |
-3.2% |
-0.5% |
7.0% |
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| Calc - Exit poll |
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5.92 |
3.62 |
-1.07 |
2.30 |
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1.4% |
0.1% |
-1.7% |
1.3% |
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| Exit - Recorded |
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2.38 |
-3.38 |
1.19 |
5.76 |
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2.4% |
-3.4% |
1.2% |
5.7% |
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