China’s unannounced test of an anti-satellite ballistic missile on the 11 January 2007 has evidently caused significant concern in the West and in particular the US. Not only does it put existing military and civilian satellite networks at risk, the act was clearly intended as a warning in the true cold war sense.
As I write this report, the story has finally hit the mainstream media but in most cases only a fairly sanitized version of the events is being made public. This very newsworthy event was not made public for 6 days after the launch, but despite the delay in publication, some interesting details are emerging that indicate increasing tensions between China and the US.
Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon
By Craig Covault/Aviation Week & Space Technology 01/17/2007 07:45:59 PM
U. S. intelligence agencies believe China performed a successful anti-satellite (asat) weapons test at more than 500 mi. altitude Jan. 11 destroying an aging Chinese weather satellite target with a kinetic kill vehicle launched on board a ballistic missile.
The Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, NASA and other government organizations have a full court press underway to obtain data on the alleged test, Aviation Week & Space Technology will report in its Jan. 22 issue. If the test is verified it will signify a major new Chinese military capability.
Neither the Office of the U. S. Secretary of Defense nor Air Force Space Command would comment on the attack, which followed by several months the alleged illumination of a U. S. military spacecraft by a Chinese ground based laser.
“Illumination of a U. S. military spacecraft by a Chinese ground based laser” is a significant omission in most accounts. Clearly China can now track US spy satellites with laser guided precision and has now demonstrated the ability to destroy them.
On January 19th, Al Jazeera also carried the story with this interesting addition.
Debris threat
A senior White House official, requesting anonymity, said that Britain, Japan and South Korea were expected to express their concerns to China soon.
A key concern of the test is that debris could interfere with civilian and military satellite operations on which the West increasingly relies.
On the day of the test, a US defense official said the United States was unable to communicate with an experimental spy satellite launched last year by the Pentagon's National Reconnaissance Office.
However, there was no immediate indication that this was a result of the Chinese test.
By itself, China’s development of this technology would not be of such concern. The US and Russia have possessed equivalent systems for decades. But set against the backdrop of cooling Sino-US relations and open threats of war with Iran (who has observer membership status within the SCO) it looks increasingly like a shot across America’s bow.
The fact that the launch was not announced beforehand and would certainly be detected by the US suggests this was indeed meant to cause “concern”. It wasn’t meant to be secret and the timing may also be significant.
Just two days before the missile launch the Associated Press published this report concerning US displeasure at multi-billion Euro $ gas deals signed between Iran and China.
U.S. cautions China over reported multibillion dollar gas deal with Iran
The Associated Press Published: January 9, 2007
BEIJING: The United States has urged China to reconsider a reported multibillion dollar (euro) natural gas deal with Iran amid international efforts to sanction Tehran for its nuclear programs, a U.S. Embassy spokeswoman said Tuesday.
China's No. 3 oil company, China National Offshore Oil Corp., was reported last month to be in talks to develop Iran's Northern Pars gas field.
Around the same time, the U.N. Security Council unanimously agreed to impose sanctions on Iran for refusing to suspend a uranium enrichment program that is suspected of being part of a nuclear weapons project.
Given the sanctions and Tehran's continued defiance, "We think this is a particularly bad time to be initiating major new commercial deals with Iran," U.S. Embassy spokeswoman Susan Stevenson said in an e-mail.
Less than a week after this warning to China, we read in the London Times
Britain is joining an American military campaign to blunt Iranian influence in Iraq and the Gulf.
In a move likely to heighten tension in an already volatile part of the world, US forces have been ordered to detain Iranian agents in Iraq and to strengthen substantially America’s military presence in the Gulf.
Two Royal Navy minehunters have arrived in the Gulf to reinforce a naval frigate on patrol in the area.
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Britain’s contribution is two minehunters HMS Blyth and HMS Ramsey, which will remain in the Gulf for an unusually-long two-year mission to keep shipping routes open in the event that Iran attempts to block oil exports.
The presence of 2 US carrier strike groups in the Gulf is not only provocative to Iran.
It must surely also be a pressure on China to show solidarity with it’s fellow SCO member and essential energy provider, or risk dissatisfaction with the other member states. [on edit this is misleading - Iran has applied for membership but has not yet become a member, but it's close status as a business partner makes this likely in the near future.] The SCO is after all an alliance of convenience to counter the strength of US and NATO military influence in the whole region. Iraq never had such powerful friends but Iran not only has good relations, it has long term energy contracts essential for China’s growing industry. The fact these contracts are remunerated in Euro $’s can only inflame the situation further.
It should also be noted that the nuclear power plant that is the casus belli for the US campaign against Iran is the result of a very lucrative contract with Russia; the deaths of Russian engineers and nuclear scientists in a strike against these facilities, not to mention the radioactive contamination throughout that region would also put a great deal of pressure on Vladimir Putin, the other leading statesman in the SCO.
Another point to consider is the West’s reliance on the GPS satellite network for civilian and military aircraft navigation and even the guidance systems for long range missiles. Even if there are back-up satellite systems for military use these would likewise be very vulnerable to attack. A sudden and overwhelming attack on these satellite systems, in a defensive capacity in the face of a perceived threat of war, would render a good deal of the West’s aircraft grounded and prevent early warning systems from detecting long range ballistic missile launches.
Collectively, the SCO controls a large portion of the world’s population and strategic resources and the Bush administration’s determination to provoke it is extremely dangerous for us all. [On edit China's launch of this missile is also highly provocative but perhaps less so than the huge build up of armed forces in the Gulf region. The consequences of a military confrontation between the SCO and NATO across the war torn regions of the Middle East are profound to say the very least].
[edited to correct html and clarify some assumptions]
Update January 21st, 2007
It seems there is more to the “Illumination of a U. S. military spacecraft by a Chinese ground based laser” statement than first appears. It isn't as I assumed a laser targetting system for tracking satellites.
The London Telegraph published this report back in September 2006 and it seems likely that this "Illumination" is the result of a laser weapon powerful enough to blind a spy satellites optical sensors.
Beijing secretly fires lasers to disable US satellites
By Francis Harris in Washington
Last Updated: 1:55am BST 27/09/2006
China has secretly fired powerful laser weapons designed to disable American spy satellites by "blinding" their sensitive surveillance devices, it was reported yesterday.
The hitherto unreported attacks have been kept secret by the Bush administration for fear that it would damage attempts to co-opt China in diplomatic offensives against North Korea and Iran.
Sources told the military affairs publication Defense News that there had been a fierce internal battle within Washington over whether to make the attacks public. In the end, the Pentagon's annual assessment of the growing Chinese military build-up barely mentioned the threat.
Update January 22nd, 2007
The Chinese government have announced that the launch of the anti-satellite missile was intended to force the United States to the negotiating table and reconsider a ban of the use of weapons in Space.
On January 20th the London Times reports
Washington’s response will be crucial in determining what happens next: an arms race in space or an agreement to limit the use of Star Wars technology. American analysts said that the test had exposed the “soft underbelly” of America’s national security apparatus, because most of the Pentagon’s spy satellites orbit at a similar height to the weather satellite destroyed by the Chinese test.
White House critics said that the Chinese test was a result of President Bush’s aggressive unilateralism, this time in his space policy. Last year the US expressly ignored Chinese and Russian calls for a global ban on the development of space weapons. Instead, a new policy preserved America’s right to develop military space technology, while “dissuading” others.
However, China's warning appears to have fallen on deaf ears. Before most of the public were even aware of the launch, the Bush administration have dismissed calls to alter their controversial space weapons policy.
China’s Anti-Satellite Test Widely Criticized, U.S. Says No New Treaties Needed
By Jeremy Singer and Colin Clark
Space News Staff Writers
posted: 19 January 2007
6:20 p.m. ET
Standing by the new space policy the White House issued last year, a U.S. State Department official said China’s Jan. 11 test of an anti-satellite weapon in space is not cause to open negotiations on a new treaty that would place limits on what countries can do in space.
“We do not think there is an arms race in space. The United States believes that the existing body of existing international agreements — including the Outer Space Treaty, as well as the liability and respective compensation conventions — provide the appropriate legal regime for space,” the State Department official said in a Jan. 19 telephone interview.
The official said the space policy clearly states that the United States will oppose the development of new legal regimes or other restrictions that seek to prohibit or limit U.S. access to, or use of, space and that no change in that policy is warranted.
“Arms control is not a viable solution for space. For example, there is no agreement on how to define space weapon. Without a definition you are left with loopholes and meaningless limitations that endanger national security. No arms control is better than bad arms control,” the State Department official said.
A new development is likely to inflame Sino/US relations further. Yesterday the Chinese premier announced he had authorised the diversification of up to 1/3 of their foreign exchange reserves now mostly locked up in US Treasury bonds.
The Financial Times reports
China’s multibillion dollar question
By Richard McGregor in Beijing
Published: January 21 2007 20:04 | Last updated: January 21 2007 20:04
With a vaguely worded statement from Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, at the close of a weekend meeting in Beijing on finance policy, the die has been cast for a momentous change in the management of the country’s massive foreign exchange reserves.
Mr Wen said the management of the reserves, the world’s largest at more than a thousand billion dollars, should be improved and the channels through which they are invested diversified.
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Mr Wen did not endorse any specific plan but has indicated the government will consider proposals on how to use some of the money – now mostly locked up in US Treasury bonds – more aggressively.
Initial projections for the amount of money that could be more actively managed are $200bn-$300bn but Mr Wen shed no light on this.
