Remember the bounce Obama was supposed to get after Iowa? It took a few days for post-Iowa polls to come out, but they're now definitely showing Obama ahead of Clinton.

With polls like these, Jerome Armstrong doesn't see how Obama can lose NH, and neither do I.

After Obama's stunning win in Iowa, Clinton needed a dramatic strategy to slow his momentum, but she couldn't come up with one. She rightly rejected suicidal advice to go negative against Obama, and tried instead to prove even harder that she has more experience than he does. She probably succeeded in that for those who watched Saturday's debate, but the desire for "change" in this election is so much more potent than the desire for "experience" that she simply can't ride the "experience" horse to victory, no matter how convincingly she makes her point.

So what happens after NH? Armstrong predicts:

Clinton is going to probably lose Nevada too, and South Carolina. She will garner some more delegates, and a mostly symbolic win, in Michigan along the way, and still have the lead in the delegate count, but that's all. Clinton will need to draw a line somewhere, in a state that they will bank it on, and as I've been saying all along, that will be Florida.

Everyone agrees Obama will win South Carolina on 1/26, but Nevada (1/18) is very tough to call because the last poll was a month ago. Clinton was up 20% but Obama wins in IA and NH would make the race very close. I believe Obama's IA/NH victories are the result of an outstanding field organization, but I don't know if he built a comparable one in NV. Still, he'll have 10 full days after NH to barnstorm NV, and we know the crowds will be huge. Heck, he could probably fill the UNLV basketball stadium.

Looking ahead to Florida on 1/29, Clinton had a 25% lead in mid-December. Obama will have a harder time winning Florida because it is so much bigger than the earlier states. Clinton will do well with South Florida retirees, but there are plenty of younger voters across the state, including black and Latino voters who will be inspired by Obama.

Of course I'm just projecting a straight line, and I'm therefore not factoring in the effects of campaign strategies. If Clinton finds a dramatic way to distinguish herself from Obama - or if Obama makes some big mistake - she'd have a better chance of holding her lead in NV and FL. But I don't think either possibility is likely.

Clinton has been campaigning since Election Day 2006, and Obama jumped in this January. By now they've made the major moves they're going to make. They both have a lot of money, but Obama will raise a lot more this month than Clinton because of his victories.

And what about Edwards, Richardson, and Kucinich? I know a lot of our readers support one of those three, but I just don't see any upcoming state where they can become competitive with Clinton and Obama, unless those two engage in mutual destruction - which neither campaign is dumb enough to do. So the others can stay in the race until the end, and make important points in the debates, but none of them has a realistic chance of becoming competitive.

That's the nature of the primary process - IA and NH winnow the field down to 1-3 viable competitors, and when one of those competitors strings up a series of victories, the battle is effectively over.

The same would be true on the Republican side except none of their candidates are viable so it will take a lot longer for Republican voters to figure out which of their guaranteed losers will get crushed by the smallest margin. I don't envy them that decision!

Update 1: I haven't written much about Obama's positions on the issues (which have failed several progressive litmus tests), but I'm glad to see this:

Roland Martin: If you are elected what is the very first thing that you focus on as Commander in Chief of this country?

Barack Obama: Well, we will call in the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I will give them a new assignment and that is to bring our troops home in a careful, responsible way, but to end this occupation in Iraq. I will call in my Secretary of State and initiate the diplomacy that's needed to make sure that exit is accompanied by negotiations between the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds.

I'd like to see Obama declare a deadline like Kucinich, Richardson, and Edwards, so hopefully they will keep pushing him to do so in the upcoming debates.

Update 2: Armstrong offers some hope for Edwards supporters based on Rasmussen national daily tracking polls, which over this past week show Clinton falling from 43% to 36%, Obama steady at 25%, and Edwards gaining from 14% to 23%. Unfortunately national polls have little relevance to state primaries, but Edwards can certainly tout these numbers on the stump and on TV to fire up his supporters in NH and hope to beat Clinton one more time.