New ARG Poll on Censure & Impeachment
I believe this American Research Group poll is the first to ask about censuring Bush. I think the results would be significantly more supportive of censure if the word "illegally" was inserted before "authorizing wiretaps." That's the point that Russ Feingold has been making over and over again.
| Do you favor or oppose the United States Senate passing a resolution censuring President George W. Bush for authorizing wiretaps of Americans within the United States without obtaining court orders? | |||
| 3/15/06 | Favor | Oppose | Undecided |
| All Adults | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Voters | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Republicans (33%) | 29% | 57% | 14% |
| Democrats (37%) | 70% | 26% | 4% |
| Independents (30%) | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| Based on 1,100 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of adults nationwide March 13-15, 2006. The theoretical margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, 95% of the time. | |||
The second question on impeachment shows less support for impeachment than the polls taken before the Dubai debacle and the Katrina tapes, which makes no sense. I suspect it's because the question is "stark" - there is no reason suggested for why Bush might be impeached, such as lying about Iraq or illegally wiretapping American citizens.
| Do you favor or oppose the United States House of Representatives voting to impeach President George W. Bush? | |||
| 3/15/06 | Favor | Oppose | Undecided |
| All Adults | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| Voters | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Republicans (33%) | 18% | 80% | 2% |
| Democrats (37%) | 61% | 30% | 9% |
| Independents (30%) | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Based on 1,100 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of adults nationwide March 13-15, 2006. The theoretical margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, 95% of the time. | |||
Update 1: Chris Bowers of MyDD started a Media Censure Poll Watch to challenge Corporate Media Whores who promote GOP anti-censure propaganda to cover real poll data showing a plurality of Americans support censure.
Update 2: Here is the analysis by Raw Story:
A new poll finds that a plurality of Americans favor plans to censure President George W. Bush, while a surprising 42% favor moves to actually impeach the President.
A poll taken March 15, 2006 by American Research Group found that among all adults, 46% favor Senator Russ Feingold's (D-WI) plan to censure President George W. Bush, while just 44% are opposed. Approval of the plan grows slightly when the sample is narrowed to voters, up to 48% in favor of the Senate censuring the sitting president.
Even more shocking is that just 57% of Republicans are opposed to the move, with 14% still undecided and 29% actually in favor. Fully 70% of Democrats want to see Bush censured.
More surprising still: The poll found fully 43% of voters in favor of actually impeaching the President, with just 50% of voters opposed. While only 18% of Republicans surveyed wanted to see Bush impeached, 61% of Democrats and 47% of Independents reported they wanted to see the House move ahead with the Conyers (D-MI) resolution.
I'm not sure why Raw Story threw in the Conyers resolution (presumably H.Res.635, which calls for a Select Committee to investigate impeachable offenses) at the very end - the poll didn't mention it at all.
Update 3: Glenn Greenwald writes:
Already, a plurality support the Censure Resolution, and that's with just one person -- Russ Feingold -- advocating it, and Democrats running away from it. Think of what those numbers will be if Democrats stand united, with some Republicans, and forcefully explain why we cannot allow the President to break the law with impunity.
I have said more times than I can count that Americans have deeply instilled within them the value that nobody is above the law, including the President, and that it is hubristic, arrogant and intolerable for anyone to claim the right to break the law, no matter the intentions. Every poll has shown considerable opposition to this law-breaking despite very little leadership on this issue. What more do Democrats want than this poll? Go forth and censure.
- Bob Fertik's blog
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This still looks good on the Impeachment numbers.
In this poll, if you count the percentage of the mix consisting of Republicans as mirroring those that are polled in other polls as being the supporters of the GOP retaining control of Congress (something like 36-37% of the public)...
I did a little bit of number running on that poll...
if you neglect the Republicans completely, as they represent a number not likely to vote for a democrat this year, and rework the numbers only counting non-republicans, it's interesting that the percentage in support comes out to be 54.7%.
> 1100 * .37
407
> 1100 * .3
330
> 407+330
737
> 407 * .61
248.27
> 330 * .47
155.1
> 248.27+155.1
403.37
> 100 / 737
~.13568521031207598371
> . * 403.37
~54.73134328358208955223
This indicates that running under the assumption that if all of the indies polled will vote Dem this year, that support is strong for Impeachment. And for each indie that doesn't vote Dem, that support for Impeachment only grows among likely voters for every indie that doesn't vote Dem.
For Dem leaders to not pay attention to what is probably greater than the 61% shown here, because the question was without context to events, is just plain nuts, and IMHO, political suicide.
It's high time the candidates understood the facts of life. A SUPERMAJORITY OF THE PARTY SUPPORTS IMPEACHMENT. Either listen, or commit political suicide.
WOW!
42% of Americans have ALREADY Impeached Bush! They need NO more data. NO opening question to ponder.
THEY. WANT. HIM. IMPEACHED.
That is a HUGE number.
The key to understanding the implications...
Is to note that of the people likely to vote for Democrats, 54.7% want him Impeached, and additionally 10.8% are undecided, and would probably support investigation.
The polling here seems a bit pro-bush in it's bias and methodology though, the cold asking on Impeachment, the not stating Bush broke the law in the other question, not to mention the adding of context to their preferred question.
The Republicans in this poll, even the 18% in support of Impeachment, can be safely tossed out as far as we are concerned, as they won't vote for a Democrat anyway, thus, they shouldn't even be considered in Democratic politics, as they constitute a radical fringe, and why should Democratic politicians be beholden to a radical fringe that opposes them anyway.
The Republicans have had their Congress for over a decade now. It's time we had ours, and we want them to do what we want.
Look at the numbers if you toss out the Republicans and Indies. Now we are talking SUPERMAJORITY support for Impeachment. Once the process starts, and the investigation is live on TV, watch the anti-Impeachment numbers be limited only to the Timmy McVeigh / Taliban wing of the GOP.