THE UNANSWERED QUESTION: WHO REALLY WON IN 2004?
For Immediate Release: 07/14/2005
Contact: See this annotated thread. It’s all in the numbers:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&add...
THE UNANSWERED QUESTION: WHO REALLY WON IN 2004?
According to the vote tabulators, in the 2004 presidential election George W. Bush won a stunning victory that defied all odds, particularly those applied by unbiased statisticians. He won despite trailing in most state and national polls. He won despite an approval rating of less than 50%, usually the death knell for an incumbent presidential candidate. He won despite trailing in the three National Exit Polls three timelines from 4pm to 12:22 am (13047 respondents) by a steady 48%-51%, miraculously winning the final exit poll (with only 613 additional respondents, totaling 13,660). This poll was “weighted” (altered) to meet the reported election result on the assumption that the reported result was accurate -- quite an assumption. The final poll showed a stunning reversal of the Kerry 51%-48% poll margin, which had been measured consistently all day by the same polling group: major news/networks and polling firm Edison-Mitofsky.
The analysis of exit polls and documented fraud in this election began on the Internet. A number of academics posted detailed work showing the near-impossible odds of Bush overcoming deficits in the state exit polls and the National Exit Polls. Much of this analysis comes from “TruthIsAll” (TIA), a poster on DemocraticUnderground.Com. TIA has a background and several degrees in applied mathematics. Using various elements of the national and state exit polls and other data sources, he produces results that are thorough, detailed, sober and compelling. He shows ALL data and calculations, while encouraging others to check his math. Only once did he make a minor math error, after asking DUers to check his calculation of probability that at least 16 states would deviate beyond their exit poll margin of error and go for Bush. The answer turned out to be one in 19 trillion! The debates on DemocraticUnderground’s “2004: Election Results and Discussion” forum are legendary and have attracted observers from all over the Net.
Before the election, TIA produced a daily update of his Election Model site. On 11/1/04, based on extensive statistical analysis, he projected a Kerry win of 51.63% to 48.38% using a combined average of national polls, and of 51.80% to 48.2% using a Monte Carlo simulation of individual state polls. After the polls closed, data from the Edison Mitofsky NEP survey (sponsored by the major television networks and CNN) was unintentionally released over the Internet. This was internal network data, embargoed from public use, data with statements like “Estimates not for on-air use” and “This page cannot be displayed.” The networks had locked down this data for their own use in an “electronic cover-up” that was offensive to those who knew the story. Luckily for all of us, Jonathan Simon downloaded the exit poll data and saved the CNN screen shots! The Edison-Mitofsky (EM)-Corporate Media (CM) “embargoed data” was available for anyone with eyes to see it and a mind to review it.
TruthIsAll immediately began analyzing and publishing analyses on the forbidden data. Looking at the demographics on the second to last E-M major network poll, He laid out the set of improbable circumstances needed for Bush to win: “To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe….” This post was cited by Will Pitt in a major blog, which gave it wide visibility on the Net. “KERRY WON THE FEMALE VOTE BY A HIGHER PERCENTAGE THAN BUSH WON THE MALE VOTE…AND MORE WOMEN (54%) VOTED THAN MEN (46%).” It was all right there, polling results that we were never intended to see. But this was only the beginning. There are over 100 individual analytical postings that demonstrate the tremendous odds against a Bush win. This high-level analysis dovetailed with and was confirmed by on-the-ground stories of voting rights violations all over the country, particularly in Ohio.
The key data sources for TIA’s analysis are the four EM National Exit Polls and the 50 state exit polls. For those who doubt the reliability of exit polling, there has been a trend toward accuracy within 0.4% since 1998. These Exit polls are endorsed heartily by international voting rights activists -- the Carter Center, for example -- and even the Bush administration, which used them, ironically, in the Ukraine elections to demonstrate fraud and call for a new election. There has been a trend toward accuracy within 0.4% since 1998.
At 12:22 am on November 3, the national exit poll of 13,047 respondents showed Kerry to be the winner by 51% to 48%, matching TIA’s pre-election projection. The poll was “un-weighted,” meaning the EM and CM had yet to apply weighting “adjustments”: percentages and weights applied to all the demographic categories to match the poll results to the reported vote count! Imagine if this technique had been applied by exit pollsters in the first Ukrainian election to show victory for the incumbent, who had committed gross election fraud. Yet this odd technique of turning a poll into a ratification of the actual voting results was applied in the American election. The final exit poll, with 13,660 respondents, showed a stunning reversal of fortune for Bush. The poll results were “re-weighted” to create a Bush “victory margin.”
The odds against the deviations from the state and national exit polls to the final vote count are astronomical. In addition, there is the consistency of the “pristine” exit poll timeline from 4 pm (8349 respondents) to 7:30 pm (11,027) to 12:22 am (13,047).
In addition to the gender-based evidence cited above, TIA has shown that some weightings for the question “How did you vote in 2000” are mathematically impossible. For example, the final poll claims that 43% of all 2004 voters were former Bush 2000 voters. But 43% of 122.3 million, the number of votes in the 2004 presidential election, is 52.59 million, and Bush only got 50.46 million votes in 2000, approximately 1.75 million of them from voters who have since died. Therefore, Bush’s final poll exit poll numbers, WHICH WERE MATCHED TO THE VOTE, had to be off by 4 million votes.
The analysis also demonstrated that other voter statistics make it impossible for Bush to have won. Even if all Bush voters from 2000 showed up and voted for him, he still needed an additional 13 million votes. He didn’t get them from new voters and those who did not vote in 2000; those voters preferred Kerry by an almost 3-to-2 margin. Because of this, a Bush victory required that he must win a whopping 14% of Gore 2000 voters, all of whom had to return to vote in 2004. But Gore voters were angry; they came back to defeat Bush once again after having the election stolen from them.
Logical absurdities and inconsistencies in Election 2004 abound. The data, analysis, and narrative are available at (insert link) for open-minded individuals who want to form their own conclusions about “Stolen Election 2004.”
This work is just part of a comprehensive set of election fraud work and analysis provided by the dedicated voting rights activists in DemocraticUnderground.Com’s “2004: Election Results and Discussion” forum, a unique Net resource.
Exit Poll Analysis: The Essential Threads
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&add...
Exit Poll Analysis: A Complete Selection
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&add...
- Login or register to post comments
- Send to friend
Join us & contribute
Proud members of the Democratic Party
Copyright 2006 Democrats.com. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy
Excellent work on a lot of people's part...
At the old Dems.com boards...we figured that Gore had won handily...or would have had 90,000 minority votes been counted(which they were not)and of course, the problem of the green vote, another 90,000+(not all of whom would have voted for Gore to be sure). Still, a pool of approx. 180,000 votes would have put the contest beyond Baker/Bush manipulation.
'04 is essentially the same story. We are all aware of the shenanigans that took place in both Florida and Ohio. I feel certain that Kerry would have won had the election been an honest one.
History will eventually produce the truth...to late for the 3 elections that were rigged(2002 included in the 3).
A real shame that our democratic leaders, for the most part at least, won't fight back. Leaves it all to us in the grassroots.
It may eventually come to an eyeball to eyeball confrontation with our opposition. They like dealing in the shadows, hate the light of day.
How sad for us and the rest of the world
We know who really won and, worst of all, we know who really lost. I know that Sandra Day O'Connor did some right things, but I will never forgive her for her vote on the 2000 election. If she has grandchildren, I fear that this vote will be the saddest legacy given to them by Grandma. The Supreme Court above all else should represent truth and justice unsullied by politics. Sandra's vote opened the flood gates that unleashed Dubya and Co. on the world. Then the 2004 debacle took place with the fiascos in Ohio and probably many other states. Since this was pure theft, who could we turn to to fix it? The usurped FBI or even worse the Ashcroft led Justice Department. I wish that Kerry would have taken the fight on for all of us. Many of us would have gotten out there to protest if we had had someone who would have held his ground and fought. The Ukrainians did it. We would have done it too. So much has been made of the flag and the pledge of allegiance by conservatives. Rather than telling us how to live, worship,and breathe, the conservatives should concentrate on the meaning of this pledge. I know that all of us here know what it means to pledge our allegiance to the Republic for which its stands with liberty and justice for all. We go out and work everyday, obey the laws, pay our taxes, donate blood, take care of our families, vote, send our children off to war, and love them always. We are good citizens. We don't try to cheat everybody,steal from the poor, take jobs away, and try to eradicate the middle class of America. We aren't apologists for traitors and don't believe that terrorists need counseling. We are the ones that manufacture, build, supply,treat, feed, and serve our country everyday of the year. We do something and accomplish something. How many of the people who are in the Bush Administration or support the administration really know what this pledge means? I venture to say that by their actions, very few of them really embrace and respect this pledge that they claim to hold so sacred. We need to take back our voting rights and get our country back.
Bingo
Grinch, you are right on target. Three straight thefts. And the truth that shall make us free is being spread at the grassroots. Word of mouth takes time, but the gang will be known by its deeds.
This is a job for grassroots
organizations, but it's not going to gain any momentum if the organizations are going to compete. It will require a coordinated effort by every grassroots website, organization and county Democrat party circulating an agreed upon petition collected by an agreed upon clearinghouse. There are so many websites, and so much information available about this issue yet it's scattered like forgotten campaign confetti. One thing is for sure, we have to first demand legislation that will criminalize theft, by any means, of an election.
I have long since come to believe that people never mean half of what they say, and that it is best to disregard their talk and judge only their actions. Dorothy Day
We elected him
By the simple virtue of casting our votes in 2004, we all elected George W. Bush president. He is our president. He is our problem. Until we as Democrats take ownership of our president and our government, we will remain in the background, left to grumble about a stolen election, disenfranchised voters, and dirty politics.
The social contract we enter into by casting our vote is an agreement with eachother as Americans to abide by the result of the plebiscite, and to go about the business of governing within the conditions we are left with when the dust settles.
Let's own the results of 2004; Let's admit that we were part of the problem; Let's get active by being studious, vocal and committed to good government. If we own George W. Bush as OUR OWN president, we will better be prepared to correct the injustices, corruption, malfeasance and ineptitudes as we move into 2006 and 2008.
Don't be politically predictable--- act with integrity and conviction!
Huh?
What does "owning" mean?
Sure, I'll admit that I was part of the problem. Only my problem was that I campaigned for Kerry, when I should have been busting my ass for the Election Protection campaign. This is still a problem and we will NEVER get "ownership" unless we can get fair elections.
People who refuse to listen to the argument that this election was flawed, especially here in Ohio, are sticking their heads in the sand. Even if you don't believe that voting fraud took place, it cannot be denied that voter suppression took place. I know, I saw it firsthand in the most Democratic county, and in hindsight the most important electoral state in the election.
As a matter of fact, just today in the Cleveland Plain Dealer, there is a story that state prosecutors are investigating a $10,000 contribution from Diebold to the Franklin County Election Board Director.
It appears that you are
It appears that you are taking Dubya's "ownership society" concept to its extreme. I don't "own" the decision to invade Iraq -- I protested long and loudly. I don't "own" the corruption behind tax cuts for the wealthy -- I pleaded with my representatives to vote against them.
Frankly, I do not own any of the responsibility for the outcome of the elections, nor the actions of the neoconservatives who are destroying the fabric of our Constitution. What I DO own, is the responsibility to hold the BA and its supporters up to extreme scrutiny, and continue to work for their removal.
Dubya is NOT my president and I will never recognize him as such. He and his band of criminals do not represent my values, morals, or views. He is everything that I view as un-American, and unpatriotic.
So when you use the term "let's" in your diatribe, please do not associate yourself with me. I am not a part of your problem.
Own
No one owns this President. He does whatever he wants when he wants. He rubs lies and corruption in our faces. Karl Rove is about as unsavory as you can get and he is his personal advisor. Our country is like the space shuttle. The windows are starting to fall out and we can't stop them. We are in a holding pattern. If my mistake was to vote and you are giving me ownership of Bush because he cheated, then you are telling me that our democracy is dead. We are not just sitting around and whining. We are trying to raise the conscience of the people and inform them. It is rather hard when every media outlet is blocked. If you have another answer please enlighten me. I comport myself with integrity and conviction every day of my life. It is hard for me to believe that we are stuck with a man who wanted to be the class clown as president. Rove, his smear tactics, and our fear of our mortality let Bush steal the election. We should have been out in the streets protesting because our fellow citizens had to stand in line forever to vote in poor neighborhoods and when some of them finally were allowed to vote,the voting machine didn't register their vote correctly. Is this the America you remember or treasure? I remember more. I remember a time when people marched in the streets to insure that everyone got the right to vote, that people didn't have to ride in the back of the bus and use separate bathrooms and go to separate schools, and that little girls in the US weren't killed by "terrorists in sheets" while they were in Sunday school. Our real shame is that we didn't get in the streets in November and shout "Foul". We are too complacent and too comfortable. By all predictions however, the future will not be so comfortable. Bush will only make it worse.
Yep.
EXACTLY. This may not be fraud in the legal sense, but there was an overt effort to suppress African-American voters. I'm not going to rehash it because everyone here has read Conyer's report except for the member in question.
Listen
You guys just don't get it! I agree with you 100%!!! The election was stolen, Bush is a liar! The machine he has built has roots going back to big oil circa 1920's... I understand that these are all very bad guys; However, you can be cognizant of the illegalities of the Bush Machine without dwelling on events of 2 years ago.
When we stop living as a victim of the machine - when we take back ownership of the process - when realize that by embracing the problems of the system, we take ownership of the system, then and only then will you stop living in victimland, and have a government with some cojones.
Stop living in victimland, and DO SOMETHING!
What in the hell do you
What in the hell do you THINK that we're doing! We ARE doing something. You come here as a 5-hour member and accuse us of being complacent and of lacking integrity, and expect us to listen to your rants against us? When you call us "you guys" and tell us that we "just don't get it," you have crossed the line.
You sound very familiar to me, and I suspect that you have been here before under a different name. We are victims in the truest sense of the word, as are ALL Americans under this corrupt administration.
Until you decide to become a part of the solution, and learn a little about what we ARE doing, you have no right to criticize. Bub bye...
IT WASN'T JUST OHIO THAT WAS CHEATED.
HEADLINE: Voting-machine maker will pay $2.6 million;
ELECTION LAW
BODY:
san francisco [ap]-Diebold Inc. has agreed to pay $2.6 million to settle a lawsuit filed by the state of California alleging that the electronic voting company had sold the state and several counties shoddy voting equipment.
Diebold also agreed to pay an undisclosed sum to reimburse Alameda, San Diego and other counties for the cost of supplies used in the Nov. 2 election. California's secretary of state had banned the use of one type of Diebold machine in May, after problems with the machines disenfranchised an unknown number of voters in the March primary. Faulty equipment forced at least 6,000 of 316,000 voters in Alameda County, just east of San Francisco, to use backup paper ballots instead of the paperless voting terminals. In San Diego County, a power surge resulted in hundreds of touch-screens not starting when the polls opened, forcing election officials to turn voters away from the polls.
LOAD-DATE: November 30, 2004
This thread could get very nasty...
and probably should. Ownership? LMAO! Bush gave a speech at the University of Ohio. After the speech, the president and CEO of DIEBOLD told the pretzeldent that Ohio would see him re-elected. One way or another, Ohio did.
We have known for 5 years that the voting processes in this country were rotten to the core. Grassroots did what they could...but our elected representives and senators in DC have refused to fight. Most of them have curled up in a ball and hidden from sight.
Wringing our hands over this will not cut it. Time is running out and these wimps in Washington continue their hand-wringing and head-shaking. That essentially is all they have done for years.
Daschle, Gephardt, Lieberman, Biden, Miller, the two Nelsons can't get close enough to Bush...but by Jove, they have certainly tried.
What our party needs now are streetfighters. Where are they? None have come forward. All continue to pick up their $3000+weekly checks...and all continue to fail at the work put in front of them. Where is the price they must eventually pay for their submission to the fascists?
Several years ago, we had some activists here at Dems.Com. They were so busy planning and carrying out protests in DC about all sorts of matters...but they all fought the idea that they needed to protest in front of DLC/DNC headquarters. Perhaps this is why these two hapless organizations continue to prosper. The main function of the DLC is counting the olives in the jar--the toothpicks in the box.
I personally have nothing but contempt for the likes of Gore and Kerry--both of whom ran or quit. When the going got rough, Kerry went sailboarding. Wonderful!
Our reps have now given Bush CAFTA. The next step is Roberts...and whatever Frist/Bush wants as the next project. Rove, instead of getting caught, got a payraise...as did that 'Scooter' fella. A payraise. Guess they couldnt get a medal.
Ownership? What the hell are you talking about?
Congressional Hearing on
Congressional Hearing and Testimony on potential vulnerablility of electronic voting... (indeed, a programmer who wrote just such a program for a Florida State official (now Congressman(!?!))(obviously, what works in Florida might work in Ohio too.)). Very Interesting!
Computer expert testifies elctions in Florida were fixed
_____________________________________________
For additional videos which inform, entertain and raise suspicions...
"I will try it: Menu page"
_____________________________________________
Dems inability to remedy GOP election fraud.....
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/1018-22.htm
We have to keep our eyes on the ball... what good is it if Bush is impeached and vote fraud gives 8 more years of GOP rule anyway.....
Along with voter fraud in...
Florida, Ohio, Texas, and Georgia, we can now add Iraq. The evidence is overwhelming that several districts managed to show more votes on the Constitution than they have voters.
The disease is now a global problem.