I've compeleted a state-by-state analysis of superdelegates to the Democratic National Convention. The analysis looks at the number of superdelegates compared with the number of pledged delegates and the number of electoral votes for each state. It also compares the allocation of delegates to the results of primaries/caucuses thus far.

Among the major points:

>Neither Senator Hillary Clinton nor Senator Barack Obama is likely to reach the number of delegates needed to win the Democratic Party’s Presidential nomination without the pledges of some superdelegates.

>There are significant differences of opinion among Democratic Party leaders over the appropriate role of superdelegates, a category of delegates that was instituted in 1984.

>While superdelegates comprise on average approximately 20% of all Democratic convention delegates, some state delegations will consist of a substantially higher percentage (30% or more) of superdelegates.

>When superdelegates are combined with elected delegates, some states have total delegate allocations that are disproportionately higher than their percentage of electoral votes in the general election.

>In 19 of the states that have already had primaries or caucuses, many superdelegates have thus far shown their independence from their respective states’ results in deciding which Presidential candidate to support for the Democratic nomination.

If you wish to receive a copy of the full analysis, please send me an email.

--William Arnone

william.arnone@ey.com