Is Huckabee the GOP Frontrunner?

Update 1: A brand new Des Moines Register poll shows Huck leading by 5% - that's huge news!

Huckabee 29%
Romney 24%
Giuliani 13%
Thompson 9%
McCain 7%
Paul 7%
Tancredo 6%

Chris Bowers has re-crunched the numbers, and Huckabee is surging!

That’s right, I have moved Huckabee into second place, ahead of Giuliani. And no, the seeming absurdity of having the two candidates who are currently 4th and 5th in national polls [Romney and Huckabee] as the top two contenders for the Republican nomination is not lost on me. The way I see it, now that Huckabee is also rising in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, two states where Giuliani is slipping, I think Huckabee will finish ahead of Giuliani in both New Hampshire and South Carolina even if Huckabee doesn’t win Iowa. It is starting to look like Romney vs. Huckabee for the Republican nomination. In fact, in another week or two, if his across the board rise continues, I might be projecting Huckabee as the frontrunner. Should he win Iowa, it does not strike me as difficult to believe that he could make up even a 15-20 point deficit in New Hampshire, and then go on to win the nomination easily. There is a ton of potential movement left on the Republican side, and relative unknowns who do well in early states will secure it.

Those polls were taken before Huckabee won the CNN/Youtube debate by a mile. Todd Beeton writes:

For me, it was a no-brainer. In fact, during the debate I was inspired to call my Republican parents to see if they were watching (my Dad had previously expressed enthusiasm for Huckabee.) They weren't. I went on to tell my Mom that if I were a Republican (she laughed) and I was watching the debate, I just don't see how you vote for anyone but Huckabee. He answered questions directly with a combination of humor and emotional resonance that almost had me convinced he could sell a tax hike and free college for illegal immigrants to a wingnut. The reason everyone else on that stage should be scared of Huckabee is that any positive qualities each of them is known for, whether rightfully or not, he actually possesses. Romney's slickness, except without the fakery; Thompson's good ole Southern boy charm except without the need to call "line" during every answer; McCain's straight talk that actually is; and Giuliani's apparent conviction and refusal to pander.

And on Thursday, national frontrunner Rudy Giuliani's campaign started melting down over the "Shag Fund" multi-scandal involving over $600K in NYPD expenses to shag his mistress Judi in the Hamptons, plus more to provide illegal NYPD taxi service to Judi and her whole family.

The immediate beneficiary of Giuliani's meltdown is likely to be Mitt Romney, since they are the two contenders for the GOP's CEO vote. But much of Giuliani's lead came from working-class Republicans, and it's hard to see them picking Mogul Mitt over Regular Mike.