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Stolen Election 2004: Were the Exit Polls Wrong or Right? Let's Poll the Pollsters!

Submitted by Bob Fertik on December 20, 2004 - 9:47pm.

Economist/Statistician Ron Baiman Ph.D., a senior research specialist at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Chicago, updated Steve Freeman's analysis of the exit polls that said Kerry won. Baiman used the official state-certified results as of December 7, rather than the immediate post-election results used by Freeman. But Baiman came to the same conclusion as Freeman: that the discrepancies between the exit polls and the actual results, both in the critical states (OH, PA, and FL) and nation-wide, are "impossible."

The United States of Ukraine?: Exit Polls Leave Little Doubt that in a Free and Fair Election John Kerry Would Have Won both the Electoral College and the Popular Vote
by Ron Baiman
December 19, 2004

These unexplained statistical anomalies in the vote count in critical states, such as Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, and in the national popular vote for the 2004 Presidential elections, indicate:

a) Implausibly erroneous exit sampling especially for the national sample and for the most critical states where one would have expected pollsters to be most careful, and/or

b) Election fraud and/or discriminatory voter suppression that resulted in a in an election result in Ohio, Florida, and other states, and in the national popular vote outcome, that is contrary to what would have occurred in a free and fair election.

I conclude that, based on the best exit sample data currently available, neither the national popular vote, or many of the certified state election results, are credible and should not be regarded as a true reflection of the intent of national electorate, or of many state voters, until a complete and thorough investigation of the possibilities a) and b) above is completed.

These are remarkable words for a scholar - Baiman is strongly suggesting the Presidency was stolen. The fact that two experts have come to the same conclusion is doubly (or is it squared?) significant.

How many experts will have to reach the same conclusion before the mainstream media touches this story?

This is not a rhetorical question. I'm mad as hell and I'm not gonna take it any more. I want serious answers - and I need your help to get them.

I want direct answers to this question, and I will post them all here at http://democrats.com/exitpoll

Two scholars - Profs. Steve Freeman and Ron Baiman - analyzed the differences between the unadjusted exit poll results and the election results reported by election officials. Both scholars concluded the results in the 3 key states - Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania - were so far outside the margin of error as to be impossible. The same is true for the nationwide results. They conclude that either a) the exit poll techniques were seriously wrong - which they consider highly unlikely - or b) the reported election results were seriously wrong and John Kerry actually won. Do you agree with their analysis, and do you think the problem was a) or b) ?

Help me find the direct web link to each organization (preferably the page devoted to election polls) and the top person, including the name, phone, and e-mail (or webform). Send me the info via our webform (http://democrats.com/contact) and I will post it as quickly as I can. While you're collecting the info, submit the question above and if you make contact before I do you can handle the follow up correspondence.

Let's make some news - and maybe make some history too!

A. 2004 Exit pollsters

B. 2004 Exit Poll sponsors (request for raw data from Rep. John Conyers)

  • ABC/Disney - Anne Sweeney, President
  • AP - Thomas Curley, President
  • CBS - Andrew Heyward, President
  • CNN - Jim Walton, President
  • FOX - Gail Berman, President
  • NBC - Bob Wright, President

C. Poll bloggers

12/14/04 Exits: Were They Really "Wrong?"
Blames polling error, citing an internal NEP review of 1,400 sample precincts showed Kerry's share of the vote overstated by an average of 1.9 percentage points

12/11/04 Systematic Voting Fraud or Systematic Exit Polling Bias?
Blames poll bias of 3.7%-3.9%, most likely due to Republican hatred of the media (and their exit pollsters).

"I'd still be very curious to hear pollsters explicitly account for why the bias was so large, because nearly 4% bias is pretty darn big for a professional polling organization. If I were a paying customer of Edison Media Services and Mitofsky International like ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, et cetera, I'd be plenty PO'ed."

D. Media pollsters

E. Media poll editors

F. Recount reporters

  • NY Times - Tom Zeller

11/12/04 cited early MIT/CalTech study dismissing election problems, but a later addendum to that study made clear the published exit poll results were adjusted to match the "actual" results. Zeller never corrected his error.

G. Democratic pollsters

  • Greenberg
  • Hart
  • Lake
  • Mellman

H. Republican pollsters

  • Rasmussen

I. Academic experts